Alfred von Tirpitz (March 19, 1849 – March 6, 1930) was a German Admiral, Secretary of State of the Imperial Naval Office, the powerful administrative branch of the Kaiserliche Marine from 1897 until 1916.
This audio features Tirpitz giving arguments (in German) in favour of U-boat warfare.
Tirpitz developed a "risk theory" (an analysis which today would be considered part of game theory) whereby, if the German Navy reached a certain level of strength relative to the British Navy, the British would try to avoid confrontation with Germany (that is, maintain a fleet in being). If the two navies fought, the German Navy would inflict enough damage on the British, that the latter ran a risk to losing their naval preponderance. Because the British relied on their navy to maintain control over the British Empire, Tirpitz felt they would rather maintain naval supremacy in order to safeguard their empire, and let Germany become a world power, than lose the empire as the cost of keeping Germany less powerful. This theory sparked a naval arms race between Germany and Great Britain in the first decade of the 20th century.
However, this theory was based on the assumption that Great Britain would have to send its fleet into the North Sea to blockade the German ports (blockading Germany was the only way the Royal Navy could seriously harm Germany), where the German Navy could force a battle. Faced with this option a German Admiral commented, "If the British do that, the role of our navy will be a sad one", correctly predicting the role the surface fleet would have during World War I. Unable to influence naval operations from his purely administrative position, Tirpitz became a vocal spokesman for a unrestricted U-boat warfare, which he felt could break the British strangelehold on Germany's sea lines of communication.
